The IPO Window Opened. So Did the Trapdoor Under SaaS.
Eight companies raised $100M+ each in New York this week. Meanwhile, software stocks dropped 25%. For founders weighing exit timing, both signals matter.
Capital Signals
What's changing right now. Playbooks explain the system. Signals track what's shifting — in private markets, wealth structures, and founder behaviour — so you can move before the crowd notices.
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Exit Markets Are Open — But Congested
IPO window is open but crowded. Blackstone's largest pipeline ever. SpaceX eyeing $50bn IPO. Amazon in talks for $50bn OpenAI stake. When mega-GPs flood the calendar, smaller founders need parallel exit routes—not single-track plans.
Private Markets Are Eating the Balanced Portfolio
Private markets stopped being "alternative." BCG: wealthy investors already at 15-20% allocation. EQT paid $3.2bn for Coller. Private credit is being mis-sold as low-risk income. If your governance hasn't caught up to your allocation, that's a problem.
The Liquidity Landscape Just Shifted
Three structural shifts are reshaping founder liquidity in 2026. UK's CARF framework makes crypto compliance automatic. Mega-cap IPOs may crowd out everyone else. And 46% of PE managers now use GP-led secondaries for distributions—double last year.